the signs and portents haven't been good all week long all sorts of GOP maachers have been throwing in the towel and either endorsing or have stopped spending their money on a loser's game.
I strongly doubt Trump's KKK kerfluffle this weekend is gonna attrite his numbers tomorrow nothing else has said has dented his appeal one whit, why should this be any different.
Cruz, Kasich and Rubio are slowly being reduced to largely regional dark horse candidates who seem to have a shakey grip on their home state primaries...why they are staying in at this point is a mystery to me, the vituperation seems to rule out any vice presidential aspirations (although the jury is still out on Rubio he is a cynical little shit to be sure) to say nothing of thwarting Trump's nomination which incredibly looks like a foregone conclusion.
Unless the GOP base rebels this is Trump's to lose tomorrow. But the GOP Base wants blood and red meat and in bigger doses than the leadership has been willing to serve up. In the end this is a fairly anomalous "failure of followership" but then again these people have been fed fantasies for so long is it any wonder they would follow a candidate who is a wholesale vengeful fantasist?
Monday, February 29, 2016
Sunday, February 28, 2016
"Charlie the Chump"
When Governor Baker makes a mistake it's a doozy is all I can say. In a desperate attempt to shore out "brand moderate republican", he foolishly endorsed Chris Christie for President not three weeks ago only to have the NJ Governor bail and then himself endorse Donald Trump for President.
In all, Our Governor looks like a credulous chump....but thats to be expected, despite his high approval numbers Baker is at best a rudimentary politician with a streak of ill luck as well, he could as my aged Irish Mother would say "screw up a two car funeral" given a chance.
In Baker's defense he exactly no one in the GOP race for President who fits even a vague caricature of republican moderation, so he picked the candidate he owed payed off in counterfeit bills and even that simple transaction blew up in Charlie's face.
Its the fact that Baker had to pretend that an avowed pro life pro gun conservative from New Jersey was some sort of Rockefeller Republican is what I find so grimly hilarious.
Right now there seems to be some pressure from the Globe for Baker to "pick someone else" before Trump clears the field. As an entirely disinterested observer I urge the Governor to throw in the towel, endorsing John Kasich is another exercise in futility, the Governor of Ohio will be going Hat in Hand with the rest of them to Trump Plaza to get the best deal they can soon enough...Baker will doing himself a favor and keep mum.
MAYBE if Trump auto destructs at the convention, or rides off to Waterloo in November then Baker can credibly position himself as a survivor and a spokesman for the non-crazies in the GOP...right now there is not much he can do....
In all, Our Governor looks like a credulous chump....but thats to be expected, despite his high approval numbers Baker is at best a rudimentary politician with a streak of ill luck as well, he could as my aged Irish Mother would say "screw up a two car funeral" given a chance.
In Baker's defense he exactly no one in the GOP race for President who fits even a vague caricature of republican moderation, so he picked the candidate he owed payed off in counterfeit bills and even that simple transaction blew up in Charlie's face.
Its the fact that Baker had to pretend that an avowed pro life pro gun conservative from New Jersey was some sort of Rockefeller Republican is what I find so grimly hilarious.
Right now there seems to be some pressure from the Globe for Baker to "pick someone else" before Trump clears the field. As an entirely disinterested observer I urge the Governor to throw in the towel, endorsing John Kasich is another exercise in futility, the Governor of Ohio will be going Hat in Hand with the rest of them to Trump Plaza to get the best deal they can soon enough...Baker will doing himself a favor and keep mum.
MAYBE if Trump auto destructs at the convention, or rides off to Waterloo in November then Baker can credibly position himself as a survivor and a spokesman for the non-crazies in the GOP...right now there is not much he can do....
Friday, February 26, 2016
Scot Lehigh sounds desperate in today's Globe
he really thinks that if Charlie Baker gets into some alliance with John Kasich, then the cause of Moderate Republicanism Is Not Lost....
I mean this is laughable on the face of it, Kasich IS NOT a moderate, he clearly identified himself as a conservative at the Town Hall Event I attended. Kasich's moderate republican cred is solely derived from his own disinclination to howl vulgarities...he'll happily burn books or witches or whatever once elected, he'll do it with a bland lithium-style smile as well.
Baker's endorsement of Kasich would in turn be a fruitless expenditure of political capital on the part of the Massachusetts Governor, unlike the Christie endorsement which was as I said, repayment of a political debt at pennies on the dollar.
Besides, Kasich is swimming in deep conservative rapids right now I doubt he wants the backing of the allegedly moderate Governor of Massachusetts and anyway Kasich is toast next tuesday.
Sorry Scot....the Shades of Bill Scranton, Milton Eisenhower and John Volpe will not burst the bonds of death this election year.
I mean this is laughable on the face of it, Kasich IS NOT a moderate, he clearly identified himself as a conservative at the Town Hall Event I attended. Kasich's moderate republican cred is solely derived from his own disinclination to howl vulgarities...he'll happily burn books or witches or whatever once elected, he'll do it with a bland lithium-style smile as well.
Baker's endorsement of Kasich would in turn be a fruitless expenditure of political capital on the part of the Massachusetts Governor, unlike the Christie endorsement which was as I said, repayment of a political debt at pennies on the dollar.
Besides, Kasich is swimming in deep conservative rapids right now I doubt he wants the backing of the allegedly moderate Governor of Massachusetts and anyway Kasich is toast next tuesday.
Sorry Scot....the Shades of Bill Scranton, Milton Eisenhower and John Volpe will not burst the bonds of death this election year.
Thursday, February 25, 2016
Amidst the National GOP's Lurch towards
Outright Falangism, Governor Baker is not so quietly trying to purge the republican state committee of it's egregious wingnuts. The Globe of course is all happy sighs at the prospect they tend to get giddy every time the moderate republican brand surfaces somewhere.
Of course this also gives Governor Baker an unparalleled opportunity to do some off the books fundraising in quest of said purge....that fundraising BTW is not good news as far as I am concerned.
Massachusetts is a state with a political culture that is far too easily penetrated by corrupt practices....and raising money in secret for a public purpose is always a bad precedent given said milieu.
I'll be curious as to what Baker thinks constitutes a "republican moderate" if he pulls the purge off, these days the bar is set pretty low, witchburners like John Kasich can be rebranded as a moderate simply by declining to yell and throw tantrums in public.
Pretty sad really....but lets face it, "moderate republican" doesn't really mean anything anymore, moderates have either left the party or don't vote or else they make an annual bad bargain with some candidate who holds them all in disdain.
Of course this also gives Governor Baker an unparalleled opportunity to do some off the books fundraising in quest of said purge....that fundraising BTW is not good news as far as I am concerned.
Massachusetts is a state with a political culture that is far too easily penetrated by corrupt practices....and raising money in secret for a public purpose is always a bad precedent given said milieu.
I'll be curious as to what Baker thinks constitutes a "republican moderate" if he pulls the purge off, these days the bar is set pretty low, witchburners like John Kasich can be rebranded as a moderate simply by declining to yell and throw tantrums in public.
Pretty sad really....but lets face it, "moderate republican" doesn't really mean anything anymore, moderates have either left the party or don't vote or else they make an annual bad bargain with some candidate who holds them all in disdain.
Wednesday, February 24, 2016
You just know Jeb Bush
is crashing around his house right now in a stupid vile rage throwing things and cursing Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, His Brother, His Backers and anyone else involved in his candidacy...thats in between the pathetic crying jags.
I'll bet his Mom cut him dead when he withdrew, La Famiglia Arbusto doesn't tolerate failure after all....
Meanwhile Marco Rubio is campaigning like a Sidekick Run Amok, someone needs to explain to the Boy Wonder that if he keeps coming in third he isn't gonna get anywheres. Frankly Marco looks like he needs to have very basic concepts explained to him in very simple terms.
So yeah right now it's Trump's race to lose, that is pretty amazing just from a historic standpoint, unless the GOP is willing to countenance some pretty savage skullduggery out in public at their convention as well. I doubt the Anti Faction has the guts quite frankly....and we as liberals dismiss Trump's general election potential at our peril.
I'll bet his Mom cut him dead when he withdrew, La Famiglia Arbusto doesn't tolerate failure after all....
Meanwhile Marco Rubio is campaigning like a Sidekick Run Amok, someone needs to explain to the Boy Wonder that if he keeps coming in third he isn't gonna get anywheres. Frankly Marco looks like he needs to have very basic concepts explained to him in very simple terms.
So yeah right now it's Trump's race to lose, that is pretty amazing just from a historic standpoint, unless the GOP is willing to countenance some pretty savage skullduggery out in public at their convention as well. I doubt the Anti Faction has the guts quite frankly....and we as liberals dismiss Trump's general election potential at our peril.
Monday, February 22, 2016
I've noticed a want ad in the Sunday Globe
(and yes be amazed that the Globe still runs want ads) wherein Stop-n-Shop is soliciting new hires specifically cashiers, grocery clerks, meat cutters the whole schmeer to work if and when a work stoppage occurs....
In other words, Stop-n-Shop is interviewing scabs.
Apparently they anticipate a strike at some point this year a'la Market Basket.
This is appalling.
Anyone who can actually interview at this point for a possible scab gig at a grocery store has to be at rock bottom in this life. It's disgraceful that the very poorest of the poor are now being marshaled to do the working class out of their jobs, because believe me, grocery store work is no path to riches of itself.
So we may be faced with yet another job action at a grocery chain in the near future.....and the usual cynical responses are already being prepared in advance.
In other words, Stop-n-Shop is interviewing scabs.
Apparently they anticipate a strike at some point this year a'la Market Basket.
This is appalling.
Anyone who can actually interview at this point for a possible scab gig at a grocery store has to be at rock bottom in this life. It's disgraceful that the very poorest of the poor are now being marshaled to do the working class out of their jobs, because believe me, grocery store work is no path to riches of itself.
So we may be faced with yet another job action at a grocery chain in the near future.....and the usual cynical responses are already being prepared in advance.
Saturday, February 20, 2016
Jeb We Hardly Knew Ye
Jeb Bush has finally seen the handwriting on the wall and suspended his campaign after a dismal showing today in The South Carolina GOP Primary. At his height he spent 150 million U$D on campaign adverts that called Chris Christie, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio & John Kasich a bunch of traitors and immature jerks. Meanwhile Jeb went from town to town in New Hampshire like a sanctimonious prig decrying the vulgar tone of his opponents.
In truth, based on what I saw of him, Jeb's heart was never in it, a bunch of jobbers convinced him 2016 would be easy pickin's and the Former Governor of Florida, like a damn fool, believed them.
I think he stayed in the race this long out of irrational hatred and envy of Marco Rubio (his onetime protege) and perhaps a childish fear of disappointing his notorious cold and withholding Mother.
In then end Jeb went down like a punk, putting his ancient Mother and clownish Brother out on the campaign trail, begging audiences for applause and pretending to universal disbelief that he was God's Own Angel.
I don't know what will happen this year but seeing a charter member of the La Famiglia Arbusto Crime Family finally get their Comeuppance has been precious and lovely indeed to see.
In truth, based on what I saw of him, Jeb's heart was never in it, a bunch of jobbers convinced him 2016 would be easy pickin's and the Former Governor of Florida, like a damn fool, believed them.
I think he stayed in the race this long out of irrational hatred and envy of Marco Rubio (his onetime protege) and perhaps a childish fear of disappointing his notorious cold and withholding Mother.
In then end Jeb went down like a punk, putting his ancient Mother and clownish Brother out on the campaign trail, begging audiences for applause and pretending to universal disbelief that he was God's Own Angel.
I don't know what will happen this year but seeing a charter member of the La Famiglia Arbusto Crime Family finally get their Comeuppance has been precious and lovely indeed to see.
Friday, February 19, 2016
So now Donald Trump is feuding with Frankie Da Pope....
Da Holey Fadda Ourwa Pope (to quote Ray Flynn) made some veiled references to xenophobic politicians and predictably Donald Trump called the Papal Discourse "Disgraceful" (and likely much worse things).
I'm waa-ay past any hope that mere obnoxious rhetoric is gonna sink Donald Trump, street level politics seems to be the GOP's only hope.
I do think this might finally ignite Jeb Bush's Political Funeral Pyre Though, we can confidently await his "As a Catholic I am Offended" death rattle which will likely precede a final slabbing with the Coroner's Jury (political division).
There just aren't enough Catholics in South Carolina to incite and this Pope is likely none too popular down there.
BTW just a question....where are the US Bishops when their Pope comes in for a nasty attack from a US Politician Huh?? If Frankie was getting blasted by Al Gore or the like the Sacerdotal Stampede to register outrage on Live TV would kick up a dust cloud seen for miles.
Nope....Monastic Silence....seems odd don't it???
I'm waa-ay past any hope that mere obnoxious rhetoric is gonna sink Donald Trump, street level politics seems to be the GOP's only hope.
I do think this might finally ignite Jeb Bush's Political Funeral Pyre Though, we can confidently await his "As a Catholic I am Offended" death rattle which will likely precede a final slabbing with the Coroner's Jury (political division).
There just aren't enough Catholics in South Carolina to incite and this Pope is likely none too popular down there.
BTW just a question....where are the US Bishops when their Pope comes in for a nasty attack from a US Politician Huh?? If Frankie was getting blasted by Al Gore or the like the Sacerdotal Stampede to register outrage on Live TV would kick up a dust cloud seen for miles.
Nope....Monastic Silence....seems odd don't it???
Thursday, February 18, 2016
SC Governor Nikki Haley
(who was smart to steer clear of this year's GOP Presidential Sweeps IMHO) up and endorsed Marco Rubio in the upcoming primary.
Most observers agree it's a rather pointed attempt to get Jeb Bush to throw in the towel....and likely it is at the end of the day. On the other hand that does make Rubio the anointed Establishment Fave to Take Down Trump and in what universe is that supposed to happen?? So far other than a pair of beady eyes and a twitchy demeanor Rubio hasn't brought anything to the table he certainly hasn't won anywhere, coming in third won't cut it forever.
The whole thing seems desperate....I guess the GOP Maachers are still spinning the wheel hoping they won't have to go hat in hand to Trump after Super Tuesday, I begin to think they are all whistlin' past the graveyard.
Most observers agree it's a rather pointed attempt to get Jeb Bush to throw in the towel....and likely it is at the end of the day. On the other hand that does make Rubio the anointed Establishment Fave to Take Down Trump and in what universe is that supposed to happen?? So far other than a pair of beady eyes and a twitchy demeanor Rubio hasn't brought anything to the table he certainly hasn't won anywhere, coming in third won't cut it forever.
The whole thing seems desperate....I guess the GOP Maachers are still spinning the wheel hoping they won't have to go hat in hand to Trump after Super Tuesday, I begin to think they are all whistlin' past the graveyard.
Tuesday, February 16, 2016
The Herald is wallowing is sheer
fan service by pumping up Ex Governor Patrick as a potential Supreme Court Nominee....its a doubtful scenario though.
Given the powerful headwinds that President is encountering, he'll likely have to nominate a lower court judge someone who has already breezed past Senate Confirmation and thus puts the onus on Mitch McConnell to secede completely from the Constitutional Process.
That mitigates against Deval Patrick (who I am sure doesn't want the job) and reduces the President's talent pool a bit, but at this point It's All In a Day for Barack Obama....
Given the powerful headwinds that President is encountering, he'll likely have to nominate a lower court judge someone who has already breezed past Senate Confirmation and thus puts the onus on Mitch McConnell to secede completely from the Constitutional Process.
That mitigates against Deval Patrick (who I am sure doesn't want the job) and reduces the President's talent pool a bit, but at this point It's All In a Day for Barack Obama....
Monday, February 15, 2016
Scalia R.I.P.
And the corpus wasn't even cold before the GOP's leadership as well as their entire presidential field howled as one that Obama should not nominate a new Supreme Court Justice.
This is disgraceful, if the Senate actually goes along with insanity this means the seat will remain vacant for over a year....countless cases decided by a truncated eight person court if those cases are in fact decided at all!
This is the Fall of the US Senate....no longer the brake on political passions as envisioned by the Founding Fathers, its has been reduced to a sad collection of wingnut AM ranters...but they can completely paralyze the Government out of sheer childish desire to overturn two presidential elections.
My Ghod what would Daniel Webster say? What would Robert Taft do??
This is disgraceful, if the Senate actually goes along with insanity this means the seat will remain vacant for over a year....countless cases decided by a truncated eight person court if those cases are in fact decided at all!
This is the Fall of the US Senate....no longer the brake on political passions as envisioned by the Founding Fathers, its has been reduced to a sad collection of wingnut AM ranters...but they can completely paralyze the Government out of sheer childish desire to overturn two presidential elections.
My Ghod what would Daniel Webster say? What would Robert Taft do??
Friday, February 12, 2016
Chris we hardly knew ye....
Christie was in full flood a masterpiece of GOP impotent belligerence, he trebled down on the hatred of his onetime pal Barack Obama and campaigned for all the world like a fifth generation xerox of Rudy Guiliani.
Christie's campaign adverts were just plain idiotic rambling town hall footage of the NJ Governor talking about "Presidential Fists", wearing a pin stripped suit with weird oversized sneakers on his elephantine feet.
Having seen him up close I safely say I think he'd be no one you'd ever want to work for (he exudes a "mean bullying boss" aura) but that hardly makes him the Mortal Scourge of ISIS Terrorists Everywhere.
Oh well...nothing left to do but wait for the inevitable indictment. Christie is a New Jersey Pol After All....
***
Carly Fiorina also dropped out this week having finished only a few percentage points above radiation sickness in Granite State Exit Polls. I will pass over the contradictions of a woman seeking the GOP Presidential Nomination and her compromised private sector bona fides min favoring on wondering what in Ghod's name ever motivates a cheap act like Carly to hang in there thru primary night. Her headquarters in Manchester NH was naught but a tomb stuffed with unmailed flyers and presided over by haunted starvelings....she must have know there was no heat to gat in New Hampshire and if she cannot prevail there why hang in there?
My only answer is stupid childish pride....it can't be anything else in the face of all the baldfaced facts and the sheer humiliation of a candidate mired in obscurity and the single digits.
***
Mike Huckabee dropped out as well, and sheer Xian weirdness factor in the GOP race literally doubled all the same....
***
I dunno after Trump blew out New Hampshire I have to wonder, the clock may really be ticking on a credible AntiDonald Candidacy, doesn't anyone out there think a giddy hack like John Kasich can do the job? I wonder how long before the line cracks and the GOP topmost echelons start stealing off hat in hand to get the best deal they can for their respective interests? I think he is gonna blow out Nevada and South Carolina and after that exactly where is the last ditch line upon which the McConnells and Ryans and Romney's will make their stand? I say they are getting their alibis ready, Jeb Bush's money can't last forever at this rate.....
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Wow Sanders blew out NH....
double digits....pretty impressive, but then the polls were pointing that way all week. I think Bill needs to tell Hillary that as of tonight she is the underdog and must run as such in Nevada and South Carolina, she can win and even win handily but it will require reconfiguring her perspective and her campaign itself.
Meanwhile as I predicted Trump won a convincing plurality and the "Carroll County Clusterf**k" is currently battling it out for a four percent increment to claim bragging rights for second place. Right now John Kasich is running at 16% on CNN with Ted Cruz running third with Bush & Rubio battling it out with the cheap acts.
In other words....whoever wants to stay in whoever can afford to stay in will stay in, New Hampshire has launched Trump and yet somehow expects a giddy feckless reactionary like John Kasich will stare The Donald Down.
I have my doubts....remember at the end of the day all these guys basically lost...they just don't want to admit it yet.
And whether or not Trump takes over the GOP all depends on the relative state of denial among a bunch of grouchy white men who are trying to spin ten percent plus pluralities.
I think we might just have a very competitive primary here in Massachusetts, fancy that.
Meanwhile as I predicted Trump won a convincing plurality and the "Carroll County Clusterf**k" is currently battling it out for a four percent increment to claim bragging rights for second place. Right now John Kasich is running at 16% on CNN with Ted Cruz running third with Bush & Rubio battling it out with the cheap acts.
In other words....whoever wants to stay in whoever can afford to stay in will stay in, New Hampshire has launched Trump and yet somehow expects a giddy feckless reactionary like John Kasich will stare The Donald Down.
I have my doubts....remember at the end of the day all these guys basically lost...they just don't want to admit it yet.
And whether or not Trump takes over the GOP all depends on the relative state of denial among a bunch of grouchy white men who are trying to spin ten percent plus pluralities.
I think we might just have a very competitive primary here in Massachusetts, fancy that.
On the other hand
its just possible that John Kasich might boot strap himself into second place up in NH today....there is some polling data that suggests movement his way even if my instinct tells me he won't pull it off when push comes to shove.
If however that does happen...it's essentially the "Carroll County ClusterF**k" all over again, I strongly doubt that Kasich has the necessary political skills to clear the GOP field in order to take on Trump in single combat to say nothing of his fundraising profile or what exact constituency he can appeal to within the GOP Base.
If this does happen...and I don't think it will, all that will happen over the short term is that the candidates who can afford it will double down all over again in South Carolina and beyond. Kasich outperforming expectations is simple an excuse for more political chaos over the short term.
The irony is, Kasich is a reliable big gummin't reactionary in every way, profile, so far however he refuses to loudly wallow in the Conservative Myth of Grievance and that alone is enough to brand him an apostate in the intellectually corrupt reaches of the modern Republican Party.
I still suspect it'll be scenario two when it all goes down, Trump and then three guys clustered and ten percent plus....
BUT
I have a terrible record with predictions....don't I??
If however that does happen...it's essentially the "Carroll County ClusterF**k" all over again, I strongly doubt that Kasich has the necessary political skills to clear the GOP field in order to take on Trump in single combat to say nothing of his fundraising profile or what exact constituency he can appeal to within the GOP Base.
If this does happen...and I don't think it will, all that will happen over the short term is that the candidates who can afford it will double down all over again in South Carolina and beyond. Kasich outperforming expectations is simple an excuse for more political chaos over the short term.
The irony is, Kasich is a reliable big gummin't reactionary in every way, profile, so far however he refuses to loudly wallow in the Conservative Myth of Grievance and that alone is enough to brand him an apostate in the intellectually corrupt reaches of the modern Republican Party.
I still suspect it'll be scenario two when it all goes down, Trump and then three guys clustered and ten percent plus....
BUT
I have a terrible record with predictions....don't I??
Monday, February 08, 2016
New Hampshire Primary Predictions....
(this is my favorite part of the process quite frankly)....
I thinking Tomorrow Night will be Trump's night, seems like this time he is working the established process, that one third plurality seems to be holding strong for him.
The real race is to come in second....right now two scenarios seem likely:
1) Marco Rubio meets or outperforms expectations, closing to within five points of Trump would be preferable if unlikely. Meeting or Outperforming would create a huge amount of pressure on the lingering cheap acts (Bush, Christie, Carson, Kasich) to face facts bail and endorse Rubio for the final showdown with Trump.
That would be a pressure cooker indeed especially for surly distracted contrarians like Bush or twitchy ambitious wingnut weirdos like Ted Cruz...exactly why they were lingering in the race would be the main point of discussion. The core assumption here is that Trump's core is locked in at 30 to 35% of the GOP primary electorate and that a "unity candidate" is needed to save the party from a fidgety foulmouthed TV pitchman.
My concern is, Carson & Cruz, their base is pretty spectrumy the second choice there has to to be Trump and in a post NH Primary bail situation Trump's number could possibly uptick.
My OTHER scenario is something I like to call "The Carroll County ClusterF**k".....in other words Rubio has peaked and second place is essentially a four way tie between Him, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, some current polling suggests this very outcome. If that is the case no one is incentivized to bail (save those running out of money) and the whole mishaugas to exported to the very spectrumy wingnut utopia that is South Carolina for resolution.
There might be a late surge to a third personality in second place but I sort of doubt it based on the history up there, the polls generally tend to be reasonably predictive....but out of sheer love of chaos I hope I am wrong.
In the long run coming in second isn't winning, and Rubio is gonna need lots of help going forward IF he can get into position tomorrow night, he is awfully glib to be sure but also callow and a little bit of a brat as well.
Pay Heed.
So thats the GOP scenario, Rubio or Chaos....or perhaps Rubio and then MORE CHAOS.
On the democratic side I concede Senator Sanders is going to have a good night tomorrow night, closing to five points would be huge for Ms Clinton but I doubt she can score for that, single digits might have to suffice. In the short term she will have to endure what amounts to second third fourth and fifth guessing as the primaries move into state's less amenable to Sander's platform....
I thinking Tomorrow Night will be Trump's night, seems like this time he is working the established process, that one third plurality seems to be holding strong for him.
The real race is to come in second....right now two scenarios seem likely:
1) Marco Rubio meets or outperforms expectations, closing to within five points of Trump would be preferable if unlikely. Meeting or Outperforming would create a huge amount of pressure on the lingering cheap acts (Bush, Christie, Carson, Kasich) to face facts bail and endorse Rubio for the final showdown with Trump.
That would be a pressure cooker indeed especially for surly distracted contrarians like Bush or twitchy ambitious wingnut weirdos like Ted Cruz...exactly why they were lingering in the race would be the main point of discussion. The core assumption here is that Trump's core is locked in at 30 to 35% of the GOP primary electorate and that a "unity candidate" is needed to save the party from a fidgety foulmouthed TV pitchman.
My concern is, Carson & Cruz, their base is pretty spectrumy the second choice there has to to be Trump and in a post NH Primary bail situation Trump's number could possibly uptick.
My OTHER scenario is something I like to call "The Carroll County ClusterF**k".....in other words Rubio has peaked and second place is essentially a four way tie between Him, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, some current polling suggests this very outcome. If that is the case no one is incentivized to bail (save those running out of money) and the whole mishaugas to exported to the very spectrumy wingnut utopia that is South Carolina for resolution.
There might be a late surge to a third personality in second place but I sort of doubt it based on the history up there, the polls generally tend to be reasonably predictive....but out of sheer love of chaos I hope I am wrong.
In the long run coming in second isn't winning, and Rubio is gonna need lots of help going forward IF he can get into position tomorrow night, he is awfully glib to be sure but also callow and a little bit of a brat as well.
Pay Heed.
So thats the GOP scenario, Rubio or Chaos....or perhaps Rubio and then MORE CHAOS.
On the democratic side I concede Senator Sanders is going to have a good night tomorrow night, closing to five points would be huge for Ms Clinton but I doubt she can score for that, single digits might have to suffice. In the short term she will have to endure what amounts to second third fourth and fifth guessing as the primaries move into state's less amenable to Sander's platform....
BTW
Marco Rubio did repeat that meme yesterday in Bedford, the one that was so controversial at the Debate Saturday to the effect that "The President knows what he is doing...".
However what isn't being reported is that said quote in imbedded in a larger paranoid argument that insists that the President knows what he is doing, is making America less exception and more like The Rest of the World. Literally Rubio is accusing President Obama of trying to turn the USA into say Nigeria. So it's a sort of proxie birther argument that goes light on the birth certificate palaver....that is it nonsense repeated ad nauseum in public, is not being reported at least in detail.
However what isn't being reported is that said quote in imbedded in a larger paranoid argument that insists that the President knows what he is doing, is making America less exception and more like The Rest of the World. Literally Rubio is accusing President Obama of trying to turn the USA into say Nigeria. So it's a sort of proxie birther argument that goes light on the birth certificate palaver....that is it nonsense repeated ad nauseum in public, is not being reported at least in detail.
Sunday, February 07, 2016
A Copyist On The Stump....
Dateline: McKelvie Intermediate School, Bedford NH, 12pm EST...
Do ALL Marco Rubio's events start a solid hour late? I am serious when I say that Granite State GOP auds prefer promptitude when getting their arses kissed.
This was a bigger crowd than I'd seen before and younger overall as well, but that is simply the last seventy two hours of the New Hampshire Primary the casual voters start checking out whats on offer. John Kerry's crowds skewed lower in NH once he carried Iowa in 2004, its just the way the primary works up there.
But believe the hype, Marco Rubio is as glib and slick as they come, of the four GOP candidates I saw up in New Hampshire he is the best public speaker hands down. Of course the baseline is Jeb Bush in that cohort so take that with a grain of salt.
Rubio is also a profoundly rigid politician without a single creative notion rattling around in that handsome noggin, his whole program was seemingly downloaded from Jeb Bush's website cut down to two pages and insolently shoved out there under the Senator from Florida's name.
Despite his humble origins, Rubio exudes an irritating pro-wrestler's air of sheer ugly entitlement, it comes of wasting one's entire life public and private cowering in the conservative echo chamber.
It is therefore an act of sick intellectual desperation to somehow assign "mainstream conservative" props to such a profoundly limited and cynical man. But that is the sinkhole into which movement conservatism has plunged, their last hope in the face of uncontrollable reactionary populist revolt is a grimly selfish third tier jobber.
No wonder Jeb Bush is tearing out his hair in utter bafflement this kid has completely eaten his lunch with an evil little leer as well.
Its interesting to me that when Rubio finally did take the stage he was introduced by some giddy locals, no name NH politicians active or retired, it doesn't really mean anything save that either his campaign isn't interested in endorsements or simply has not had any on offer. Usually a few local names get attached to a campaign...here none.
This where things got a little weird I actually heard grown adults announce that as the parents of small children "national security is at the center of our concerns".
I mean screw clean water, good schools or safe playgrounds....
BTW Rubio clearly pulled his kids out of school to work the New Hampshire Primary...cynical no?
And then off he went promising the exact same shit that Christie, Bush and Kasich (and no doubt the rest of them as well) put down at their events, total repeal of Obamacare, trash common core, revoke all executive orders signed by the President, 700 miles of fences & walls on the southern border, pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Putting Russia, China & North Korea in their places, a missile shield (a-gain), a tax cut & the usually blank check to a Pentagon that Rubio promises to denude of paper pushing bureaucrats.
Don't worry Rubio wants to end sanctuary cities, abolish the Department of Education, appoint Supreme Court Justices as rigid as Antonin Scalia and repeal the 2008 & 2012 elections in general...in case you were worried or anything.
His two most cynical promises involve a solemn pledge not to cut benefits to current retirees although his plan to save social security apparently involves making baby boomer work longer for few benefits & a bizarre promise to modernize our nuclear deterrent (something Obama is already spending close to a trillion dollars to accomplish). And then there is Marco Rubio's plan to destroy Isis ("the most successful Jihadist Group Ever") which involves arming local proxies and conducting an intensified air campaign against the Caliphate.....in other words OBAMA'S PLAN the one that has reduced Isis territory by 40% in one year per the Sunday Globe.
Trust me when I say that IF Marco Rubio had a single original or new idea, it'd die a swift lonely death indeed.
And then the peroration, which is usually the most intellectually corrupt part of these GOP town hall events, Rubio promised a new era of comity and bipartisanship as soon as the republican party controls all three branches of the Government and an all powerful majority, this is where the Senator lurches into bizarrely utopian....its just the same goddamn utopia the other eight are promising. None of it can ever be realized and from the tight little smirk on Rubio's face, he knows it best of all.
Overall Rubio is a pretty glib customer although as time passes you get a definite whiny bratty vibe from him, he clearly doesn't take no for an answer....ever. His program is a stitched up fandango of everyone else's best applause lines, he took remarkably few questions from the audience (all of four all of them unremarkable, he was asked about the national debt from a tyke and Rubio simply repeated his social security meme, not one word about balancing the budget) and acted in all like someone about to ascend to Heaven on the basis of a third place showing in the Iowa Caucuses.
He claims that Hilary Clinton is "scared of him" perhaps so if there is something inherently scary about feckless young jobbers on the prowl.
About his very limited and shopworn notions Rubio is....well briefed, but that merely underscores the irony of yet another feckless empty suit is advertised as the GOP's last best hope to save The Universe.
In sum, Marco Rubio gives off that intangible of an insolent young MBA hired by your boss to clean out the deadwood in your office, soon enough he'll be in your cubicle with a stopwatch in his hand grinning that he wants to see "how fast" you work.....
Do ALL Marco Rubio's events start a solid hour late? I am serious when I say that Granite State GOP auds prefer promptitude when getting their arses kissed.
This was a bigger crowd than I'd seen before and younger overall as well, but that is simply the last seventy two hours of the New Hampshire Primary the casual voters start checking out whats on offer. John Kerry's crowds skewed lower in NH once he carried Iowa in 2004, its just the way the primary works up there.
But believe the hype, Marco Rubio is as glib and slick as they come, of the four GOP candidates I saw up in New Hampshire he is the best public speaker hands down. Of course the baseline is Jeb Bush in that cohort so take that with a grain of salt.
Rubio is also a profoundly rigid politician without a single creative notion rattling around in that handsome noggin, his whole program was seemingly downloaded from Jeb Bush's website cut down to two pages and insolently shoved out there under the Senator from Florida's name.
Despite his humble origins, Rubio exudes an irritating pro-wrestler's air of sheer ugly entitlement, it comes of wasting one's entire life public and private cowering in the conservative echo chamber.
It is therefore an act of sick intellectual desperation to somehow assign "mainstream conservative" props to such a profoundly limited and cynical man. But that is the sinkhole into which movement conservatism has plunged, their last hope in the face of uncontrollable reactionary populist revolt is a grimly selfish third tier jobber.
No wonder Jeb Bush is tearing out his hair in utter bafflement this kid has completely eaten his lunch with an evil little leer as well.
Its interesting to me that when Rubio finally did take the stage he was introduced by some giddy locals, no name NH politicians active or retired, it doesn't really mean anything save that either his campaign isn't interested in endorsements or simply has not had any on offer. Usually a few local names get attached to a campaign...here none.
This where things got a little weird I actually heard grown adults announce that as the parents of small children "national security is at the center of our concerns".
I mean screw clean water, good schools or safe playgrounds....
BTW Rubio clearly pulled his kids out of school to work the New Hampshire Primary...cynical no?
And then off he went promising the exact same shit that Christie, Bush and Kasich (and no doubt the rest of them as well) put down at their events, total repeal of Obamacare, trash common core, revoke all executive orders signed by the President, 700 miles of fences & walls on the southern border, pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Putting Russia, China & North Korea in their places, a missile shield (a-gain), a tax cut & the usually blank check to a Pentagon that Rubio promises to denude of paper pushing bureaucrats.
Don't worry Rubio wants to end sanctuary cities, abolish the Department of Education, appoint Supreme Court Justices as rigid as Antonin Scalia and repeal the 2008 & 2012 elections in general...in case you were worried or anything.
His two most cynical promises involve a solemn pledge not to cut benefits to current retirees although his plan to save social security apparently involves making baby boomer work longer for few benefits & a bizarre promise to modernize our nuclear deterrent (something Obama is already spending close to a trillion dollars to accomplish). And then there is Marco Rubio's plan to destroy Isis ("the most successful Jihadist Group Ever") which involves arming local proxies and conducting an intensified air campaign against the Caliphate.....in other words OBAMA'S PLAN the one that has reduced Isis territory by 40% in one year per the Sunday Globe.
Trust me when I say that IF Marco Rubio had a single original or new idea, it'd die a swift lonely death indeed.
And then the peroration, which is usually the most intellectually corrupt part of these GOP town hall events, Rubio promised a new era of comity and bipartisanship as soon as the republican party controls all three branches of the Government and an all powerful majority, this is where the Senator lurches into bizarrely utopian....its just the same goddamn utopia the other eight are promising. None of it can ever be realized and from the tight little smirk on Rubio's face, he knows it best of all.
Overall Rubio is a pretty glib customer although as time passes you get a definite whiny bratty vibe from him, he clearly doesn't take no for an answer....ever. His program is a stitched up fandango of everyone else's best applause lines, he took remarkably few questions from the audience (all of four all of them unremarkable, he was asked about the national debt from a tyke and Rubio simply repeated his social security meme, not one word about balancing the budget) and acted in all like someone about to ascend to Heaven on the basis of a third place showing in the Iowa Caucuses.
He claims that Hilary Clinton is "scared of him" perhaps so if there is something inherently scary about feckless young jobbers on the prowl.
About his very limited and shopworn notions Rubio is....well briefed, but that merely underscores the irony of yet another feckless empty suit is advertised as the GOP's last best hope to save The Universe.
In sum, Marco Rubio gives off that intangible of an insolent young MBA hired by your boss to clean out the deadwood in your office, soon enough he'll be in your cubicle with a stopwatch in his hand grinning that he wants to see "how fast" you work.....
Saturday, February 06, 2016
Ted Cruz's current Ad Buy in New Hampshire...
promises to save The Granite State from Flying Monkey's & EPA Inspectors under the orders of the United Nations.
Ridiculous yes?
Not hardly, Chris Christie's ad buy talks about his Presidential Fists, Jeb Bush is desperate to lay his claws into someone anyone at this point, Marco Rubio smarms like a fratboy who burned down Greek Row, in short the final terrible apocalyptic seventy two hours of the New Hampshire Primary are upon us.
I like to think the voters in New Hampshire have a certain level of discrimination, but if the GOP race is nothing but mendacity and fear then it's mendacity and fear that'll win on Tuesday no matter who the winner.
Ridiculous yes?
Not hardly, Chris Christie's ad buy talks about his Presidential Fists, Jeb Bush is desperate to lay his claws into someone anyone at this point, Marco Rubio smarms like a fratboy who burned down Greek Row, in short the final terrible apocalyptic seventy two hours of the New Hampshire Primary are upon us.
I like to think the voters in New Hampshire have a certain level of discrimination, but if the GOP race is nothing but mendacity and fear then it's mendacity and fear that'll win on Tuesday no matter who the winner.
Friday, February 05, 2016
I don't think...
Charlie Baker is a particularly skilled politician, he isn't much of a visionary, he isn't a persuasive public speaker and his skillset seems....rudimentary.
But I give him credit he has mastered the art of paying off big political debts in what amounts to "Monopoly Money".
Case in point his fervent endorsement of NJ Governor Chris Christie's campaign for the GOP nomination today, the Candidate in Question polling back down at about four percent after a brief spike some six weeks ago. "He ain't going nowhere" in the local argot and I think he knows it. Christie's current ad buy in New Hampshire looks like the roll out of commercials for a National Protection Racket, but his prospects are so dim that Charlie Baker can safely spend worthless political capital propping this fat mook up for a few more days.
Thus Baker will never have to explain to anyone why he ever thought Pro-Life, Anti Gay Marriage, Pro Revenge Chris Christie was ever anyone's idea of a moderate.....
Thats the nice thing though about endorsing a cheap act, you can pay back your political debts to the RGA for what amounts to "pennies on the dollar".
But I give him credit he has mastered the art of paying off big political debts in what amounts to "Monopoly Money".
Case in point his fervent endorsement of NJ Governor Chris Christie's campaign for the GOP nomination today, the Candidate in Question polling back down at about four percent after a brief spike some six weeks ago. "He ain't going nowhere" in the local argot and I think he knows it. Christie's current ad buy in New Hampshire looks like the roll out of commercials for a National Protection Racket, but his prospects are so dim that Charlie Baker can safely spend worthless political capital propping this fat mook up for a few more days.
Thus Baker will never have to explain to anyone why he ever thought Pro-Life, Anti Gay Marriage, Pro Revenge Chris Christie was ever anyone's idea of a moderate.....
Thats the nice thing though about endorsing a cheap act, you can pay back your political debts to the RGA for what amounts to "pennies on the dollar".
Wednesday, February 03, 2016
The Big Takeaway from Iowa
is that over sixty percent of republicans in caucus choose candidates with a bombastic, apocalyptic and or belligerent World View. All three of the top vote getters out there fairly bellowed at the voters, "If I Do Not Win You Will All, DIE DIE DIE!!! If you doooo vote for me, I will graciously ignite a bonfire composed of everyone who scares you all to light your way to a Free Market Utopia to be debugged later...."
And in truth given exactly no other audible message from the other fourteen jobbers on the GOP stump, the locals simply opted for the loudest voices and or the brattiest character...Hence Cruz, Trump & Rubio.
This has important implications for everyone down the road, but the main point is, given no choice voters will opt for volume and the illusion of domination....and people will back illusions right up to the bitter end. Remember that.
And in truth given exactly no other audible message from the other fourteen jobbers on the GOP stump, the locals simply opted for the loudest voices and or the brattiest character...Hence Cruz, Trump & Rubio.
This has important implications for everyone down the road, but the main point is, given no choice voters will opt for volume and the illusion of domination....and people will back illusions right up to the bitter end. Remember that.
Tuesday, February 02, 2016
Basically what happened last night in the Iowa GOP Caucuses
is that no less than three cartoonishly belligerent declinists finished in the money. All three of them, Cruz, Trump and Rubio are essentially peddling the same line "All of You WILL DIE DIE DIE unless you elect me President whereupon I will reward your loyalty by unleashing a Painless New Golden Age".
This is all delivered with as many smirks, snarls and eye rolls as three underaccomplished jobbers can generate on the stump.
This is heading towards gruesome spectacle and may be too much even for a jaded observer as myself.
I finally feel bad for New Hampshire. For the next seven days they will be bombarded as never ever before with a tidal wave of sheer electoral bilge all of it nauseatingly truculent in extremis. It may even be enough to make the local yeomanry finally reconsider their heretofore sacred "First in the Nation" primary status in favor of somewhere outside their TV market, Guam say....or the Aleutian Islands.
This is all delivered with as many smirks, snarls and eye rolls as three underaccomplished jobbers can generate on the stump.
This is heading towards gruesome spectacle and may be too much even for a jaded observer as myself.
I finally feel bad for New Hampshire. For the next seven days they will be bombarded as never ever before with a tidal wave of sheer electoral bilge all of it nauseatingly truculent in extremis. It may even be enough to make the local yeomanry finally reconsider their heretofore sacred "First in the Nation" primary status in favor of somewhere outside their TV market, Guam say....or the Aleutian Islands.
Monday, February 01, 2016
Jeb Bush must be tearing his hair out right now....
his hated former protege Marco Rubio scored for 22% so far in the Iowa Caucus. So of course that is allegedly one of the "three tickets out of Iowa" but it is divided neatly between three twitchy wingnut jobbers.
And if Senator Marco Rubio is anyone's idea of an "establishment moderate" then moderate republicanism dead, Dead, DEAD, in our lifetimes.
I will pay $500.00 cash to any undergraduate at Saint Anselm College who asks Marco Rubio on camera why he an alleged Roman Catholic regularly attends an Evangelical Protestant Church in Florida....and does he take communion therein? and is he worried about being reprimanded by his Bishops?
I predict a serious sh*tstorm of negative attack adverts in NH....the din is about to become a screech....and I wouldn't put it past Bush to drop the religious issue on Rubio....the man is "Madness Maddened" to quote Herman Melville.
And if Senator Marco Rubio is anyone's idea of an "establishment moderate" then moderate republicanism dead, Dead, DEAD, in our lifetimes.
I will pay $500.00 cash to any undergraduate at Saint Anselm College who asks Marco Rubio on camera why he an alleged Roman Catholic regularly attends an Evangelical Protestant Church in Florida....and does he take communion therein? and is he worried about being reprimanded by his Bishops?
I predict a serious sh*tstorm of negative attack adverts in NH....the din is about to become a screech....and I wouldn't put it past Bush to drop the religious issue on Rubio....the man is "Madness Maddened" to quote Herman Melville.
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