Tuesday, January 10, 2012

On the other hand...

maybe there is something to this "Huntsman Surge" palaver after all.
 I have a reliable source who lives right off the Tannhauser Gate just a gunshot away from Big Willy Pond, and she says that all of Carroll County is sick unto death of Ron Paul's incessant robo-phone calls and daily mailings.
I am also told by the same source that those mailings are morning starters for the woodstove all over the Granite State.
So absent Ron Paul and with Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich being fitted for designer straitjackets that leaves Huntsman in the runner up position.
If that happens, and I'm not sayin' it will, then there is something quinessentially New Hampshire about Jon Huntsman crowding into second place at the last minute.
Look New Hampshire's "first in the nation" primary status is increasingly being diluted by caucuses and primaries held in states where hyper conservative religious voting patterns heavily colonize the ballot box.
So it would be a very pious New Hampshire style jest indeed to send two Mormons out of the state as the nominal front runners for the GOP Presidential nomination.
And the Granite State will be striking a blow for religious tolerance in a Epsom-Circle-Rotary-Club kind of a way...
But mostly its just a funny idea, and you know how funny ideas can take ahold of the primary electorate up there.
Just sayin'...

William Jennings Bryan...

Went to Dayton Tennessee to argue against evolution in the Scopes Trial instead he literally died of a torrent of bombast attempting to convince an astonished courtroom that "man was not a mammal".
So to does that Conservative Hero Newt Gingrich go to New Hampshire trying to become President, and instead he ends up writhing in fury attempting to convince the flinty Yeoman of the Granite State that Mitt Romney is a greedy reactionary kulak and a class enemy of the working man.
What drives us to supreme screaming fury speaks everything about our character...

***
Meanwhile a recap:
I still say it's Mitt Romney tonight, it'll be a clear win, but the game is to drag him beneath forty percent. Even then it's a question of whether or not said second place finisher is properly positioned and funded to make their case in South Carolina an electorate so conservative and religiously weird as to make New Hampshire look like a Symbionese Liberation Army enclave.
I'm guessing it'll be Ron Paul as the chief runner up, if he has a good night he might do twenty one percent of the vote. However he himself might be too weird even for South Carolina, so possibly advantage Romney there.
There is talk of a late surge by Huntsman I suspect this might just be enough to get him into a close third place past Santorum. Thus he can claim "Mister Congeniality" honors and bail or else start re-reading all those op-ed columns urging him to run as an independent.
Santorum is finished, you could tell just looking at him on Saturday, he was livid with the strain of pretending to be a nice hale-fellow-well-met. He clearly longed to preach homophobic hellfire and damnation to that crowd at the NH Institute of Politics. Moreover he had no discernable entourage, his campaign hardly even took tim to fill up the aud with supporters or line the streets with signs. The wind is clearly out of his sails.
And Gingrich well, I think he has reached his Waterloo...could be wrong though.

Well thats my line up, likely I'm completely wrong...but then at least I'll own up to it when the time comes. Enjoy the show kids, it comes but infrequently.

Last notes on Mitt Romney...

Y'know, for a famous political misogynist, Mitt Romney sure does like to have plenty of female avatars and toady's around him at all times.
Take this rally on Saturday morning, he was introduced by New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte and then Governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley.
You'd think these two women had died and gone to the Throne of Glory they way they fairly groveled at the mere mention of Mitt Romney's holy name.
Otherwise the two of them are pretty much of a mind that bluntly asserts the World Will Come To An End If The GOP Doesn't Win in 2012.
Not sure that thesis will wear well as the campaign grinds on.
Otherwise Kelly Ayotte seems personable enough, she might have a future in Presidential Politics if she could stop that irritating quaver in her voice that makes her sound like she was about to burst into tears. Once Mitt ankles the joint maybe Kelly can compose herself and do something useful like getting the Manchester VA Hospital reopened or something.
As for Nikki Haley, I'm not sure it's a good campaign tactic for Romney to be introduced by such a gliib, unpleasant,  condescending southern politician. It only underscores his transitory commitment to the Granite State.
Haley as well might have a future in GOP presidential politics if she could just get over herself and wipe that shit eating grin off her face.
Otherwise these two women were window dressing conservatives that Romney could stand next to in order to somehow pass himself off as a conservative to New Hampshire, nothing more.
Ah the press. Standing a lonely watch over the ramparts of liberty. Sentinels of the First Amendment, with the American News Media on the job I sleep better at night.

Monday, January 09, 2012

My predictions for tomorrow's New Hampshire Primary:

(shit everyone else gets to do it, and gets paid to do it, why should I decline to indulge??)

For all the dreadful sameness of Mitt Romney's early morning rally on Saturday, I'm still calling New Hampshire for him come tomorrow night. I suspect he will do about forty percent of the vote. It is a resigned vote, from voters with a lot of problems that ought to be heard and addressed in DC but all they can concentrate on now is moving Mitt along to South Carolina in an orderly fashion.
The race is pretty much to come in a strong second and export some uncertainty danger and excitement to South Carolina. Keeping Romney under forty percent would be seen as a major upset under the present circumstances.
I think Santorum has peaked, likely he will do about ten percent tomorrow, he just does not have the horses to nail this thing down.
Huntsman is allegedly enjoying a late surge, but then a lot of fringe characters start polling better the day before the primary, it does them little good in the end.  Huntsman is coming in for some day-before luv because he spent so much time in New Hampshire kissing ass, and who doesn't like getting their ass kissed by US Ambassador.
No...the second spot fight is between Gingrich and Paul, my guess is, Paul will come in second, he might do twenty percent if he has a good day, where he goes with that given his ideological baggage I cannot say.
Gingrich, might do fifteen percent, just enough for him to make a last stand with nuclear weapons in South Carolina.
The field collects the rest of the spread.
Of course about all of this I could be wrong, I was wrong bigtime in 2008....
Of course all this

"Walking with the KIng" or the Magical Thinking of Newt Gingrich

Dateline: Derry New Hampshire:

Program note: the most well know GOP personality who could be found to introduce Newt Gingrich at this event was batty old Bud McFarlane, who spent a few minutes sharing his apocalyptic vision of despair ($200 a barrel for crude oil, cyber attacks, flying monkeys) before introducing a William Taft corpulent Newt Gingrich to a packed hall of some 300 locals.

Newt Gingrich has the mentality of a rock star, he starts his rallies casually late, he has more ex-wives than Ozzie Osborne and knows the crowd pleasing value of rambling thru his greatest hits.
The truth is though, Elvis once wanted to be Dean Martin and so Newt Gingrich wants to be Ronald Reagan and explicitly sells himself to New Hampshire auds as The Gipper's tanned rested & ready Illegitimate Son.
It is true though, that Newt Gingrich is a visionary, it is just that the things he sees rarely make a lick of sense in any manner shape or form.
And like all visionaries, Newt is an egomaniac, a good ten minutes of his campaign speech is given over to a long history of U.S. conservatism in the post Viet Nam Era, the only other GOP politicians he mentions in this ramble is Jack Kemp (once) and Ronald Reagan (who could accomplish but little without the help of Newt Gingrich).
Otherwise it was all "How I invented conservatism".
Newt talks a lot about "transcending partisanship"which on elaboration apparently consists of lying about the President's record, putting the "vital middle" under the whips and chains of the conservative right and rewriting all history to demonstrate the universal efficacy of wingnut dialectics.
And then Newt got to his central ideological thesis, the "magical things" that happen when supply side economics is read into Federal Policy. That those "magical things" usually end in crippling budget deficits like the ones we have now is never ever mentioned.
But this is Newt Gingrich we are talking about, he is a politician of hope after all, otherwise why would he keep coming back to the bizarre metaphor of supply side "magic"?
My Ghod then the cannonade od specifics began...twelve separate proposals and variations on lower taxes, deregulation, the "Reform of the EPA, the Federal Reserve and the FDA", fire Ben Bernanke, abolish the inheritance tax, introduce a voluntary flat tax (If I heard him right), drop the capital gains tax to "zero" and drill our way to energy independence.
(BTW it is a truism of GOP "magical thinking" that the USA could be an oil exporter but for Federal bureaucrats and endless regulation.)
Oh and he wants to abolish ObamaCare before he is inaugurated if at all possible by a notional all-republican congress.
Big surprise there.
Oh and while he is a firm advocate of this continental oil and gas pipeline from Canada which the Obama admin is mulling over, any power lines strung from Quebec hydroelectric to "Boston" ought to be buried underground so as not to spoil the tourist vistas and landscape of Northern New Hampshire.
Well, Newt Gingrich wouldn't be a rock star if  he wasn't casually contradictory.
In a full half hour of this nonsense, the only worthwhile measure that Gingrich espoused was reopening the Manchester VA hospital as a full service facility.
I heartily endorse this measure it is unconscionable that Granite State veterans must take the Greyhound Bus all the way to Boston to get health care out of the VA Hospital in Jamaica.
Why Senator Kelly Ayotte hasn't been heard on this matter I cannot imagine, clearly she is too busy toadying up to Mitt Romney all over the state to give it all much thought.
Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich wants to challenge Barack Obama to seven Lincoln-Douglas style debates, with timekeepers and no moderation.  The Former House Speaker clearly thinks that he would win in such a debate format hands down given his own particular rhetorical gifts (most of which revolve around lying loudly with as many false historic analogies as can be crammed him).
Me I dunno, I'm not sure Gingrich's style would "wear well" over seven debates, there is a bloated arrogant touch of Steven Douglas to the man.
That having been said, this eructation went over big time with the crowd, unlike Romney's sleepy aud early Saturday Morning, this bunch was primed to be fired up by the One and Only Gingrich.
Over and above all that, Gingrich if nominated, will try and turn 2012 into a play by play re-run of 1980, which is a mistake in my humble opinion as elections & football games never ever repeat themselves in the USA, each one has it's own unique dynamic.
But the crowd ate it up since hating on Jimmy Carter is practically GOP theology these days and everyone loves to relive a past triumph.
Other than that, Newt Gingrich offers exactly nothing at variance with Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney they are firmly for low taxes, deregulation, a strong dollar, a stronger military and couldn't care less who pays for it all.
But unlike Romney (an outright android of a politician) or Santorum (A religious fanatic posing as technocrat), Newt Gingrich thinks himself a Rock Star a man in simultaneous communion with the audience and the very muses above. His stomach is huge, his ego is preposterously huge and in two weeks he will likely be back collecting "Conservative Welfare" down in DC.
On that I could be wrong, but I can't see Gingrich, ego and all taking this fight all the way to the GOP convention let alone the general election in the fall, sooner or later rock stars have to get off tour, rest up, dry out and rewrite their act.

Sunday, January 08, 2012

The Last Temptation of Rick Santorum

Dateline: Goffstown New Hampshire, the New Hampshire Institute of Politics.

D'ye know what the problem with Rick Santorum is?
He is a mean rigid authoritarian minded man with vocal hatreds, who is somehow trying to pass himself as a nice well mannered clean cut neighborly type of candidate.
In this he resembles nothing more than Leave It to Beaver's "Eddie Haskell" who we will recall was an obsequious toady to those above, insolent & insufferable to those below.
But a strong finish in the Iowa caucuses has temporarily raised Santorum's stakes to the level of "Potential President", a heady rise given the fact he was the last and most battered harlequin out of the GOP Clown Car not five weeks ago.
Here he was making a solo appearance at a forum sponsored by the Atlantic Monthy entitled "The Economy and the Electorate".
And I will give Rick some props, he is a fountain of specific proposals compared to the cataract of applause lines and sound bytes that gush forth from Mitt Romney's pie hole.
If I had to compare Santorum the candidate to anyone, his closest DNA match might be the late Paul Tsongas of all people. Both candidates were focused on reviving the USA's assembly line manufacturing  economy almost to the exclusion of all else.
It is just that Tsongas' proposals might actually have sparked some sort of a renaissance in the manufacturing sector, Santorum's ideas are pretty much GOP boilerplate, tax cuts and deregulation and after that, The Utopia!
Oh and education, like ninety nine point nine percent of Washington DC, Rick thinks this is the sole and only way to redress income disparities.
Here too he betrays no great reserve of original thinking.
Oh and Hope, Rick is big on Hope, just like Bill & Hilary Clinton and Barack OBama and John Kerry, despair never gets equal time in the New Hampshire Primary lets face it.
On the other hand, maybe his handlers are telling him "talk about Job, Education & Hope because when you talk about gay marriage people cover their children's ears and leave the room".
For all that, Santorum is marginally more sincere than Mitt Romney which isn't saying much he tends to drone on though.  Sometimes though, those beady weasel eyes of his narrow his brow darkens and you can just tell Rick Santorum is dreaming of mass arrests and sweet smell of burning witches.
But that is a "downer" in the patois of the spin doctors, so Santorum and the rest of the GOP field are running pretty much as cheerful dismantlers and smiling salvage experts. There is actually almost no substantive disagreement between any of them so far as I can see. They all favor slashing the federal budget, cutting taxes, wholesale deregulation, ending "Obamacare" by any means necessary. There is truly broad consensus on the right these days, its just all the GOP candidates hate each other personally.
Thus as of today, the race is to come in a strong second in New Hampshire on Tuesday and rebound into the shitkicker primaries as some sort of GOP Thunder God of Vengeance.  Here I think Santorum falls short, it seems clear to me watching him at Saint Anselm College the he hasn't the time, money or volunteers to make his case in the Granite State.  I suspect he may well come in third behind Ron Paul and I'm not even prepared to put money even on that.
The Man has Shot His Bolt in other words, he needed two or three weeks to catch Romney and he is not gonna get it under the pitiless primary schedule currently in place.

As I left the hall Santorum was starting to work his way towards the issue of abstinence education and the promotion of marriage, you could just feel the room get colder.
This is how it ends for a crazy Catholic version of Paul Tsongas and the very living avatar of Allen Drury's "Senator Fred Van Ackerman".