Thursday, February 16, 2012

I'm beginning to think that

Mitt Romney's arcane game plan is to deliberately lose the Michigan Primary.
You will recall a scant four years ago, he stumped Michigan on a promise to reopen the auto factories at gunpoint.
Then he came out banging the pots against any bailout for Detroit and for a "managed bankruptcy".
Now he is insisting he was for the bailout all along.
Other politicians can flip flop seamlessly but Romney's special talent to fall flat on his face every damn time he tries it.
There are, in my opinion intangible consequences to a Romney loss in Michigan, politically it is akin to his defeat in New Hampshire some four years ago, a body blow from which he never ever recovered.
Likely such a situation might ignite talk of a brokered convention, right now it is just a fear (confined at the moment to lazy ass pundits)...But if Mitt loses Michigan that fear could become a very earnest desire for a do-over to be executed in public at the Republican National Convention.
Which could provide a very interesting counter narrative come Super Tuesday (where Mitt is still favored to do well...but then again this is Romney and he can screw up a two car funeral nicely).
That having been said, Humble Elias still expects Romney to the nominee, he is  C-Lister at best but he has money and that counts in the GOP. There hasn't been a truly brokered convention for either party since 1952, neither party retains the sort of patronage based internal power structure that could force a decision in convention. More than likely the whole shit house will erupt into chaos with no legit nominee being anointed.
You think that is crazy?
Its happened before in 1860 to the democrats, with Civil War hanging over everyone's head they ended up with three nominees from each wing of the party!
Hell it took the democrats 44 ballots in 1920 to come up with a cannon fodder nominee and 103 ballots in 1924 to produce a perfect dead duck.
Something like that could happen again and on live television as well.
Whats to stop it?
Karl Rove?
Fox News?
Rush Limbaugh?
Don't make me laugh.
Still, history rarely favors the most melodramatic outcome, so it'll be Romney in the end, but likely his general election prospects will be severely compromised.
Or so we can hope....

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