The Chimes at Midnight
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
 
Wow Sanders blew out NH....
double digits....pretty impressive, but then the polls were pointing that way all week.  I think Bill needs to tell Hillary that as of tonight she is the underdog and must run as such in Nevada and South Carolina, she can win and even win handily but it will require reconfiguring her perspective and her campaign itself.
Meanwhile as I predicted Trump won a  convincing plurality and the "Carroll County Clusterf**k" is currently battling it out for a four percent increment to claim bragging rights for second place. Right now John Kasich is running at 16% on CNN with Ted Cruz running third with Bush & Rubio battling it out with the cheap acts.
In other words....whoever wants to stay in whoever can afford to stay in will stay in, New Hampshire has launched Trump and yet somehow expects a giddy feckless reactionary like John Kasich will stare The Donald Down.
I have my doubts....remember at the end of the day all these guys basically lost...they just don't want to admit it yet.
And whether or not Trump takes over the GOP all depends on the relative state of denial among a bunch of grouchy white men who are trying to spin ten percent plus pluralities.
I think we might just have a very competitive primary here in Massachusetts, fancy that.


 
On the other hand
its just possible that John Kasich might boot strap himself into second place up in NH today....there is some polling data that suggests movement his way even if my instinct tells me he won't pull it off when push comes to shove.
If however that does happen...it's essentially the "Carroll County ClusterF**k" all over again, I strongly doubt that Kasich has the necessary political skills to clear the GOP field in order to take on Trump in single combat to say nothing of his fundraising profile or what exact constituency he can appeal to within the GOP Base.
If this does happen...and I don't think it will, all that will happen over the short term is that the candidates who can afford it will double down all over again in South Carolina and beyond.  Kasich outperforming expectations is simple an excuse for more political chaos over the short term.
The irony is, Kasich is a reliable big gummin't reactionary in every way, profile, so far however he refuses to loudly wallow in the Conservative Myth of Grievance and that alone is enough to brand him an apostate in the intellectually corrupt reaches of the modern Republican Party.
I still suspect it'll be scenario two when it all goes down, Trump and then three guys clustered and ten percent plus....
BUT
I have a terrible record with predictions....don't I??


Monday, February 08, 2016
 
New Hampshire Primary Predictions....
(this is my favorite part of the process quite frankly)....

I thinking Tomorrow Night will be Trump's night, seems like this time he is working the established process, that one third plurality seems to be holding strong for him.
The real race is to come in second....right now two scenarios seem likely:
1) Marco Rubio meets or outperforms expectations, closing to within five points of Trump would be preferable if unlikely. Meeting or Outperforming would create a huge amount of pressure on the lingering cheap acts (Bush, Christie, Carson, Kasich) to face facts bail and endorse Rubio for the final showdown with Trump.
That would be a pressure cooker indeed especially for surly distracted contrarians like Bush or twitchy ambitious wingnut weirdos like Ted Cruz...exactly why they were lingering in the race would be the main point of discussion.  The core assumption here is that Trump's core is locked in at 30 to 35% of the GOP primary electorate and that a "unity candidate" is needed to save the party from a fidgety foulmouthed TV pitchman.
My concern is, Carson & Cruz, their base is pretty spectrumy the second choice there has to to be Trump and in a post NH Primary bail situation Trump's number could possibly uptick.
My OTHER scenario is something I like to call "The Carroll County ClusterF**k".....in other words Rubio has peaked and second place is essentially a four way tie between Him, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, some current polling suggests this very outcome.  If that is the case no one is incentivized to bail (save those running out of money) and the whole mishaugas to exported to the very spectrumy wingnut utopia that is South Carolina for resolution.
There might be a late surge to a third personality in second place but I sort of doubt it based on the history up there, the polls generally tend to be reasonably predictive....but out of sheer love of chaos I hope I am wrong.
In the long run coming in second isn't winning, and Rubio is gonna need lots of help going forward IF he can get into position tomorrow night, he is awfully glib to be sure but also callow and a little bit of a brat as well.
Pay Heed.
So thats the GOP scenario, Rubio or Chaos....or perhaps Rubio and then MORE CHAOS.


On the democratic side I concede Senator Sanders is going to have a good night tomorrow night, closing to five points would be huge for Ms Clinton but I doubt she can score for that, single digits might have to suffice.  In the short term she will have to endure what amounts to second third fourth and fifth guessing as the primaries move into state's less amenable to Sander's platform....


 
BTW
Marco Rubio did repeat that meme yesterday in Bedford, the one that was so controversial at the Debate Saturday to the effect that "The President knows what he is doing...".
However what isn't being reported is that said quote in imbedded in a larger paranoid argument that insists that the President knows what he is doing, is making America less exception and more like The Rest of the World. Literally Rubio is accusing President Obama of trying to turn the USA into say Nigeria.  So it's a sort of proxie birther argument that goes light on the birth certificate palaver....that is it nonsense repeated ad nauseum in public, is not being reported at least in detail.
Sunday, February 07, 2016
 
A Copyist On The Stump....
Dateline: McKelvie Intermediate School, Bedford NH, 12pm EST...

Do ALL Marco Rubio's events start a solid hour late?  I am serious when I say that Granite State GOP auds prefer promptitude when getting their arses kissed.
This was a bigger crowd than I'd seen before and younger overall as well, but that is simply the last seventy two hours of the New Hampshire Primary the casual voters start checking out whats on offer. John Kerry's crowds skewed lower in NH once he carried Iowa in 2004, its just the way the primary works up there.
But believe the hype, Marco Rubio is as glib and slick as they come, of the four GOP candidates I saw up in New Hampshire he is the best public speaker hands down.  Of course the baseline is Jeb Bush in that cohort so take that with a grain of salt.
Rubio is also a profoundly rigid politician without a single creative notion rattling around in that handsome noggin, his whole program was seemingly downloaded from Jeb Bush's website cut down to two pages and insolently shoved out there under the Senator from Florida's name.
Despite his humble origins, Rubio exudes an irritating pro-wrestler's air of sheer ugly entitlement, it comes of wasting one's entire life public and private cowering in the conservative echo chamber.
It is therefore an act of sick intellectual desperation to somehow assign "mainstream conservative" props to such a profoundly limited and cynical man.  But that is the sinkhole into which movement conservatism has plunged, their last hope in the face of uncontrollable reactionary populist revolt is a grimly selfish third tier jobber.
No wonder Jeb Bush is tearing out his hair in utter bafflement this kid has completely eaten his lunch with an evil little leer as well.
Its interesting to me that when Rubio finally did take the stage he was introduced by some giddy locals, no name NH politicians active or retired, it doesn't really mean anything save that either his campaign isn't interested in endorsements or simply has not had any on offer. Usually a few local names get attached to a campaign...here none.
This where things got a little weird I actually heard grown adults announce that as the parents of small children "national security is at the center of our concerns".
I mean screw clean water, good schools or safe playgrounds....
BTW Rubio clearly pulled his kids out of school to work the New Hampshire Primary...cynical no?
And then off he went promising the exact same shit that Christie, Bush and Kasich (and no doubt the rest of them as well) put down at their events, total repeal of Obamacare, trash common core, revoke all executive orders signed by the President, 700 miles of fences & walls on the southern border, pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal, Putting Russia, China & North Korea in their places, a missile shield (a-gain), a tax cut & the usually blank check to a Pentagon that Rubio promises to denude of paper pushing bureaucrats.
Don't worry Rubio wants to end sanctuary cities, abolish the Department of Education, appoint Supreme Court Justices as rigid as Antonin Scalia and repeal the 2008 & 2012 elections in general...in case you were worried or anything.
His two most cynical promises involve a solemn pledge not to cut benefits to current retirees although his plan to save social security apparently involves making baby boomer work longer for few benefits & a bizarre promise to modernize our nuclear deterrent (something Obama is already spending close to a trillion dollars to accomplish). And then there is Marco Rubio's plan to destroy Isis ("the most successful Jihadist Group Ever") which involves arming local proxies and conducting an intensified air campaign against the Caliphate.....in other words OBAMA'S PLAN the one that has reduced Isis territory by 40% in one year per the Sunday Globe.
Trust me when I say that IF Marco Rubio had a single original or new idea, it'd die a swift lonely death indeed.
And then the peroration, which is usually the most intellectually corrupt part of these GOP town hall events, Rubio promised a new era of comity and bipartisanship as soon as the republican party controls all three branches of the Government and an all powerful majority, this is where the Senator lurches into bizarrely utopian....its just the same goddamn utopia the other eight are promising. None of it can ever be realized and from the tight little smirk on Rubio's face, he knows it best of all.
Overall Rubio is a pretty glib customer although as time passes you get a definite whiny bratty vibe from him, he clearly doesn't take no for an answer....ever.  His program is a stitched up fandango of everyone else's best applause lines, he took remarkably few questions from the audience (all of four all of them unremarkable, he was asked about the national debt from a tyke and Rubio simply repeated his social security meme, not one word about balancing the budget) and acted in all like someone about to ascend to Heaven on the basis of a third place showing in the Iowa Caucuses.
He claims that Hilary Clinton is "scared of him" perhaps so if there is something inherently scary about feckless young jobbers on the prowl.
About his very limited and shopworn notions Rubio is....well briefed, but that merely underscores the irony of yet another feckless empty suit is advertised as the GOP's last best hope to save The Universe.
In sum, Marco Rubio gives off that intangible of an insolent young MBA hired by your boss to clean out the deadwood in your office, soon enough he'll be in your cubicle with a stopwatch in his hand grinning that he wants to see "how fast" you work.....





Saturday, February 06, 2016
 
Ted Cruz's current Ad Buy in New Hampshire...
promises to save The Granite State from Flying Monkey's & EPA Inspectors under the orders of the United Nations.
Ridiculous yes?
Not hardly, Chris Christie's ad buy talks about his Presidential Fists, Jeb Bush is desperate to lay his claws into someone anyone at this point, Marco Rubio smarms like a fratboy who burned down Greek Row,  in short the final terrible apocalyptic seventy two hours of the New Hampshire Primary are upon us.
I like to think the voters in New Hampshire have a certain level of discrimination, but if the GOP race is nothing but mendacity and fear then it's mendacity and fear that'll win on Tuesday no matter who the winner.
Friday, February 05, 2016
 
I don't think...
Charlie Baker is a particularly skilled politician, he isn't much of a visionary, he isn't a persuasive public speaker and his skillset seems....rudimentary.
But I give him credit he has mastered the art of paying off big political debts in what amounts to "Monopoly Money".
Case in point his fervent endorsement of NJ Governor Chris Christie's campaign for the GOP nomination today, the Candidate in Question polling back down at about four percent after a brief spike some six weeks ago. "He ain't going nowhere" in the local argot and I think he knows it. Christie's current ad buy in New Hampshire looks like the roll out of commercials for a National Protection Racket, but his prospects are so dim that Charlie Baker can safely spend worthless political capital propping this fat mook up for a few more days.
Thus Baker will never have to explain to anyone why he ever thought Pro-Life, Anti Gay Marriage, Pro Revenge Chris Christie was ever anyone's idea of a moderate.....
Thats the nice thing though about endorsing a cheap act, you can pay back your political debts to the RGA for what amounts to "pennies on the dollar".

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