Tuesday, January 15, 2019

Brexit, stage right...

My prediction is, Theresa May's Brexit Plan will not get the approval of parliament today, either it'll be voted down or withdrawn in the face of defeat. Perhaps the Tories will make one more attempt for an up down vote, but I think, this will end in an uncontrolled "Hard Brexit" next month.  I don't think thats the end of Theresa May's Government at least for the short term, the PM has a Netanyahu-like talent for stitching together a tattered coalition by which to cling to power.  What she has to fear, is a vote of no confidence and another general election, May had thin margins last time and complete uncontrolled diplomatic & economic chaos is hardly a bouncy upbeat message for the British Electorate.
Under the above scenario, a lot depends on what the Labor Opposition defines as "the opportune moment" to call for a vote of no confidence, in the lead up to a "Hard Brexit" or take a chance on complete chaos presumably attending on the aftermath?
I'd never discount Theresa May's capacity to survive certain electoral destruction, but the odds are getting longer every day and she has fewer and fewer carrots and sticks to apply to the problem.

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