Monday, June 20, 2016


Call me crazy, but I think Britain is about to bail on the E.U.

Mostly my thesis is anecdotal in nature, the British Lower Classes are profoundly xenophobic even today, Cameron leads an "unnatural coalition" and his own personal charisma (Nixonian though it is) is insufficient to force a yes vote.
I suspect this whole thing is psychologically playing out as de facto "vote of confidence" in the current its almost a way to beat up Cameron without actually deposing him.
This is a temptation when the electorate is divided yet unwilling to embrace alternates...its a sort of blight that settles over democracies for short doesn't last but it might be enough to scuttle the EU.
The results though for an EU no vote could be pretty big though, it dials The UK back to pre-common market days in terms of trade, finance and European Diplomacy....all sorts of things will have to be laboriously renegotiated likely on a bilateral basis as well. And if Britain bails whats to stop the Greeks or whoever from doing likewise?
But then...I've been wrong before....

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