Tuesday, June 05, 2018

The Looming NK Summit

Its many melodramatic twists and turns can best be conceptualized as a sort of "Live Finale Episode of The Apprentice" executed on the Grandest Scale.  Just as Trump once decided on which jobber to make "his apprentice" he thinks he is making a similar choice between peace and war in a diplomatic confereence with Komrade Kim.
This is errant rubbish to be sure, but I am sure in Trump's mind it's a similar situation, fatally predicated on the notion that he somehow holds the whip hand at this conference.
The whole issue has it's obscure aspects, Kim seems as anxious as Trump for the summit but his motives are likely of an entirely devious character.  Meanwhile Trump is being entirely true to his own equivocal and slippery nature and has started lowering expectations for said summit "a process will be initiated" he's also held out the prospect of a full on Peace Treaty that'll literally finally conclude the Korean War. This is simply rhetorical blather designed to give his admin a path to "claiming victory" no matter what the summit's actual outcome.
It seems clear to me, that NK's main sponsor, the PRC is determined to keep the Korean Peninsula divided by any means necessary, they certainly do NOT want said peninsula united on terms favorable to the USA, and they seem willing to tolerate Komrade Kim's nukes in order to maintain this status quo.
This isn't the first time that that PRC has treated nuclear non-proliferation norms so cavalierly, back in the 1980's as a cheap deterrence move focused on the Russians in Afghanistan, the Chinese gave all sorts of vital help to Pakistan's nuclear weapons program.
I think Kim wants a nice long winded conference that'll wear down Trump's patience and attention span as much as possible, with any luck The President throw a tantrum that'll leave the whole thing in shambles and leave Pyongyang with it's nuke's intact.  But that may well be their idea of a best case scenario, likely they want an "agreement" thatl'll give them plenty of latitude on timelines and deliverables...something that'll allow them to make the argument that they TRIED to negotiate with Trump & failed due to his belligerence and cupidity.
Failing that they may try and link all and sundry to a final peace treaty but any such outcome should be avoided at all costs IF it leaves nukes in the hands of Komrade Kim for even a brief time. We have to make a firm linkage "no nukes = peace" nothing more.
If Kim plays his cards right he can degrade sanctions, drive a wedge between Seoul and DC and yet keep his nukes...so in some I don't see good auspices, assuming the damn thing ever comes off at all.

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