Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Down then Up...

The latest poll from Suffolk/Channel Seven says the Governor is still in the leader with the usual caveats and provisos about his low overall approval rating yaddah yaddah yaddah.
This news item, somehow by the Grace of Ghod Almighty made it onto the last page of the Metro Section of the Boston Globe.
Last I checked Rasmussen rated the Ma Gubernatorial contest a toss up, which in totality means that we are again in that volatile electoral land where anything can happen and if it does it'll make the bottom of page thirty in the Boston Globe.
But what the hell, compared to where we were six short months ago this is nigh miraculous.
From this point on, the whole thing becomes a slugfest, Baker's money and heavy media campaign (admittedly a winning strategy for the state GOP in four previous contests) hobbled by his amateur rankings, bouts of temper and cheap anesthesia style of rhetoric.
For Governor Patrick, it is his commitment to a strong ground game with as big as turnout of his base as can be executed and buttressed by what they hope will be his strong debate performances. This is strongly countered by wretched economy and Patrick's stewardship thereof, as a consequence the independents are in play as they were back in January with the special senatorial election.

As for Tim Cahill, he has plenty of money to spend outreaching to his base on the South Shore, the funny thing is his message seems to be he'll do with enthusiasm what Governor Patrick has done only with reluctance...so he is still running as a democrat in some ways. Tim's main problem is entirely systemic, third party candidates make lots of noise but don't win. Which is why in some respects Cahill is running as sort of "petitioning democrat" a'la Joe Lieberman sucking up support from disaffected voters who'd otherwise sit this one out or likely defect to Baker. Cahill's only hope of winning is to bootstrap himself up twelve points in the polls and hope for a late and very tight election night...Maybe he could with with 33.5 % of the vote, but those numbers aren't there as of today.

So everyone has a job to do as Humble Elias sees it...Game On and all like dat.

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