Sunday, January 31, 2016

The Des Moines Register's current caucus poll

Gives Donald Trump a plurality at 28% with Ted Cruz relatively close behind at 25% and Marco Rubio third with 18%.  Caucus predictions are notoriously difficult since it is tedious balloting for delegate slates, a lot of this is slanted towards campaigns that have a good statewide network and voters with the endurance to stick it out to the end.
With Trump you have to wonder if he is gonna run those numbers tomorrow night, his core voters are all low information, indifferent engagement (though high in rage factors when stoked) are enough of them gonna show up when push comes to shove.
Cruz is just the sort of smarmy book worshipping hypocrite that Iowa republicans traditionally love, if he does any business tomorrow night its on that basis alone.  How any of that leverages The Granite State is difficult to say, usually there is a huge political disconnect between the Iowa Caucuses and the New Hampshire Primary anyway.
As for Marco Rubio volatility should be his middle name he is still mired with the cheap acts in New Hampshire, his surge in Iowa might be a mere polling blip. He is another one who may do well tomorrow night and still hit a brick wall, at the moment the cheap acts have all snitched on each other to such an appalling degree there seems little hope of a consensus establishment candidate emerging in the next three weeks.  Rubio's drive to be the Sensible Alternative is compromised by the increasingly irrational animus of Jeb Bush who seems obsessed with dragging down Marco Rubio with him when the fires of annihilation are at last lit for "Team Jeb".
Ben Carson is still polling at 10% though in Iowa, if anyone was gonna dicker I'm thinking it'll be him since destiny seems to have quit on him six months ago.
I'm guessing Trump by three percent then Cruz flies to Manchester and unlocks his Headquarters on Eddy Street and starts screeching about his "momentum". Look for the attack adverts to triple by next weekend, WMUR is gonna make a blood fortune off these jobbers.

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