Thursday, March 29, 2018

If Komrade Kim v. 3.0

has really patched things up with Beijing, then that can't be good new for thr USA going into the proposed Korean Summit come May.
I think Kim wants the summit to go up in flaming chunks in a fashion that makes it look like Donald Trump's impulsive fault at which point they can either produce a prior negotiated security guarantee from the PRC and thus hamstring any military response to said summit's collapse.
In effect Beijing becomes Pyongyang's invisible patron in the room, assuming they don't attend the talks themselves at the last minute on Trumpian "impulse".
In such a scenario North Korea still labors under sanctions, but Kim doesn't give a rat's ass about sanctions as long as lobster can be smuggled in & he gets to keep his nukes it's all a big win in his book.
Bluntly put, I think Donald Trump is being lured into a trap, whatever Pyongyang/Beijing have on offer it'll be unacceptable to Trump with no immediate military solution available that doesn't run the risk of war with the PRC.
Thats assuming a security guarantee is in play...I could be wrong.
If Trump is smart (and he isn't believe me) he should downgrade expectations and send in his Secretary of State to see whats on offer and what might be taken up in return. It doesn't help that by May he'll have the help of a brand new foreign policy team basically culled from the ranks of the belligerent...lets hope they at least can sense a trap in the making.

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