Monday, December 31, 2007

Handicapping the 23rd Middlesex state rep's special election

As of yesterday the democratic primary shrank enormously, school committee member Susan Lovelace dropped out as well as Suzanne Gordon, a local scholar and writer.
Allegedly both candidates lacked enough signatures to get onto the primary ballot, Gordon I can understand she is new and no one knows her, but Lovelace is a school committee fixture and ought to have enough names in her rolodex to get certified fair -n- square.
I suspect the drop-out was was fixed up quietly, but that is only a suspicion.
This immediately turns the February democratic primary into a contest between two other school committee members, Jeff Thielman and Sean Garballey along with one Andrew O'Brien a complete newcomer to the game who is otherwise unknown to Humble Elias.
So at this point, it is Thielman versus Garballey...both have asymetrical strengths; Sean is affable and the darling of the boys and girls in the back room, but he is also barely twenty two years old and has yet to graduate college. Don't underestimate his backers though, Selectperson Diane Mahon despite not living in the 23rd Middlesex house district is clearly looking to recoup some of her losses from the recent state senate fight...and Sean would appear to be the best she could do.
Thielman on the other hand, is smart, articulate and has a proven record outside public service to go along with a job reasonably well done on the school committee.
However there is lingering and misplaced bitterness attendant on his involvement in the firing of a misbehaving middle school principal. Arlington despite it's increasingly gilt-edged appearance, is still a very provincial place in some respects...which means people can be ornery about stuff. Whether Jeff Thielman likes it or not, he will be talking about this issue in the weeks to come.

Whoever wins will have a tough fight in the general election, John Worden III, the Moderator of Town Meeting will be the GOP nominee, he has many friends and few wingnut bona fides and the state republicans might invest in the race if they think he can slip past the competition in a low turn out race.
So take this fella seriously sez Humble Elias.

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