Tuesday, December 08, 2009

Austerlitz at High Noon....

The great Massachusetts Senatorial Steamroller Fight lumbers on and on for a cold cold day in December.
Rhetorically, the best fights were between Capuano and Pagliuca, but I'm wondering if the real election day threat isn't from Khazei. If Alan has a good day if his ground game is in "believe the hype" territory, then that can't be good news for Capuano.
Seems to me, the vote in this primary skews liberal so anyone who is turned off by Coakley/Capuano pretty much has a cozy place by the fire prepped for them by Alan Khazei.
If Alan has a good day then that makes it that much more difficult for Mike to overtake Martha.
The wild card remain Pagliuca who lacks a measurable constituency within the party at this writing. Maybe all those adverts can grab off a good chunk of the turnout...But who exactly that'll be remains a mystery.
My guess is, it'll be Coakley by no more than five percent likely three percent if the wind remains in her sails.
Capuano will run a tight second with Khazei crowding him hard and Pags running a distant fourth.
The winner is Martha Coakley who takes giant step towards upending the torpid gender politics of the Commonwealth...but there may be other successes as well tonight:
Win or lose, Mike Capuano has boostrapped himself off the Somerville School Committee and onto the Commonwealth's A-list for Liberals...in a state FULL of liberals this is no small achievement.
Alan Khazei has similarly built up a good deal of electoral goodwill and name recognition assuming he wants to go forward into a different race. On the other hand, he may come to his senses and decide that saving the world is best accomplished outside elective office.
Steve Pagliuca ...? Waaal he has got some name recognition for the money he spent, but its hard to see what constituency he can collect on given his rhetorical limitations. That having been said if he can run some good numbers tonight expect to see him around in races going forward.
Well, thems my pre-dictions, if I'm write, yay for Elias, if I'm wrong I've still got preemo copy for tomorrow.
Blogging, it's a win-win gig every day.

Oh wait I almost forgot, Go Coakley, Humble Elias is Madly for Martha!

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