Saturday, January 02, 2010

Today's Iran...

is what you end up with when the native equivalent of abortion clinic bombers are allowed to make up all the rules in a society.
In essence, the Mullahs, their dragoons and attendant lackeys get to lie, cheat and steal and then defend those lies with violence.
So right now, despite the ongoing widespread protests, it is all still advantage Government. To date the Mullahs have not wavered in their commitment to shooting, jailing and or terrorizing 1/2 of the population in order to rule the other 1/2 like kings.
As of 9:52am EST the policy of the ruling partei in Tehran is no concessions, no mercy, no back talk.
Therefore in order to win, the opposition has to outlast the regime's commitment to retaining power by violence.
It worked for the Irish (who had their own special brand of violent resistance), the Indians (who went the whole "non violent" route by and large) and to a certain extent it worked for the Jews in Israel in 1948.
So far as Humble Elias can see this strategy is the oppositions' only hope in Tehran.
Nonetheless the regime hasn't flinched and the whole "outlast the bastards" meme is dependent on high expenditures in blood and manpower, sooner or later the cost of demonstrating and confronting may become too high for the disenfranchised.
So right now, it is score Mullahs, the whole thing feels less like the moment of liberation and a lot more like Tienamen Square all over again.
This has implications for US Policy in that our potential negotiating partners are likely to be the least willing to compromise, which will of course, increase tensions in that part of the world. As for Iran the international actor, they can look forward to more diplomatic isolation and economic sanctions and pressure from NGOs...All so the same old assholes can hold onto their phony-baloney jobs hassled the citizens for a few more years.

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