Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Today and Tonight...

The weather is clear and warm for January in New Hampshire, that could bring more seniors out to vote as the day wears on. That might be good news for John McCain who despite his optimistic tone is locked in a tight race with Willard Mitt Romney. What McCain needs a nice early exit poll say around 5 or 6pm at the latest noting that Obama is way out ahead with the democrats, news like that might tempt independent voters who are commuting home from Boston to throw their votes to the Arizona Senator.
He is aided somewhat by the somewhat bizarre turn Romney has taken in his advertising, full on head shots of Mitt talking away...with each moment he becomes smarmier and more insincere.
On th' other side
Senator Clinton looks nervous, she has gone populist way late in the process, the tilt might have worked two or three months ago, but the current truncated schedule reduces the real New Hampshire primary to a bare five days. This in some ways advantages the winner of the Iowa Caucuses who has some useful short lived momentum going into the New Hampshire primary.
In some ways, Obama's strategy mirrors John Kerry's approach in 2004, use Iowa to leverage New Hampshire, worked for JK and Jimmy Carter and it may work for Senator Obama tonight.
John Edwards is hoping for a miracle, which for him means once again edging Clinton for the second spot which in turn might give him a toe hold however small in South Carolina.

Therefore Humble Elias predictions run this way (Hey if Steve Stark can do em' so can I)
The democrats:
Senator Obama by eight points
Senator Clinton second
FOrmer Senator Edwards a very close third.
Richardson a distant fourth.

Gravel, Kucinich and Richardson have about fourteen days left before the curtain rings down.

The GOP:
McCain by three to five points in a late night nail biter.
Romney in a close run loss, the final issue gets exported to South Carolina for resolution.
Huckabee a distant but happy third. his will be the happiest most rousing concession speech tonight. All he needs to do today is to look competitive, his campaign is already looking to other contests in states with big evangelical voting cohorts.
Guiliani will run fourth clueless to his own impending disolution. However Rudy will hang on til Super Tuesday at least on the sheer forward thrust provided by raw ego.

Thompson, Hunter and Paul are toast along with anyone else I'm forgetting....Keyes was toast four years ago.

Let the games begin, see if Humble Elias can get anything Right!

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