Monday, February 08, 2016

New Hampshire Primary Predictions....

(this is my favorite part of the process quite frankly)....

I thinking Tomorrow Night will be Trump's night, seems like this time he is working the established process, that one third plurality seems to be holding strong for him.
The real race is to come in second....right now two scenarios seem likely:
1) Marco Rubio meets or outperforms expectations, closing to within five points of Trump would be preferable if unlikely. Meeting or Outperforming would create a huge amount of pressure on the lingering cheap acts (Bush, Christie, Carson, Kasich) to face facts bail and endorse Rubio for the final showdown with Trump.
That would be a pressure cooker indeed especially for surly distracted contrarians like Bush or twitchy ambitious wingnut weirdos like Ted Cruz...exactly why they were lingering in the race would be the main point of discussion.  The core assumption here is that Trump's core is locked in at 30 to 35% of the GOP primary electorate and that a "unity candidate" is needed to save the party from a fidgety foulmouthed TV pitchman.
My concern is, Carson & Cruz, their base is pretty spectrumy the second choice there has to to be Trump and in a post NH Primary bail situation Trump's number could possibly uptick.
My OTHER scenario is something I like to call "The Carroll County ClusterF**k" other words Rubio has peaked and second place is essentially a four way tie between Him, John Kasich, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, some current polling suggests this very outcome.  If that is the case no one is incentivized to bail (save those running out of money) and the whole mishaugas to exported to the very spectrumy wingnut utopia that is South Carolina for resolution.
There might be a late surge to a third personality in second place but I sort of doubt it based on the history up there, the polls generally tend to be reasonably predictive....but out of sheer love of chaos I hope I am wrong.
In the long run coming in second isn't winning, and Rubio is gonna need lots of help going forward IF he can get into position tomorrow night, he is awfully glib to be sure but also callow and a little bit of a brat as well.
Pay Heed.
So thats the GOP scenario, Rubio or Chaos....or perhaps Rubio and then MORE CHAOS.

On the democratic side I concede Senator Sanders is going to have a good night tomorrow night, closing to five points would be huge for Ms Clinton but I doubt she can score for that, single digits might have to suffice.  In the short term she will have to endure what amounts to second third fourth and fifth guessing as the primaries move into state's less amenable to Sander's platform....

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