Sunday, September 30, 2012

Polling Polling & More Polling....

Not even five days ago, Rasmussen called the Brown-Warren senate race deadlocked at 48% a piece, with only four percent undecided.
Today the Boston Sunday Globe says Citizen Warren is up a bare 5% over Former State Senator Brown but with eighteen percent undecided in this race.
(BTW the above link is to David Bernstein's blog who riffs a bit on the numbers, I can't link back to the Globe due to the pay wall, Bernstein recounts the stats accurately though).
I don't think the senate race has reached such a fever pitch that both sides are essentially tied at over forty five percent each....on the other hand eighteen percent undecided is a statistic better suited to a down ticket office like Register of Probate or Public Exploder.
My over all sense of the race is that it is tight, volatile that a lot of independents are still dithering and that as a consequence a lot of attention will be paid to the debates as a framing device.
I also suspect the broad consequences of the Globe's polling will validate both candidate's campaign strategies insofar as they both need maximum party unity in order to go a-hunting for stray suburban independents.